Within the ANC fraternity, she is isolated now, except for a small circle of populists who feel themselves similarly endangered She may soon be indicted. But she will not be chastened, and she cannot be ignored.For Mrs Mandela or a like-minded opportunist, to have a serious chance of reorienting the ANC from Mr. Mandela’s policies of reconciliation and business-friendly economics toward her own instinct for recrimination and redistribution would require at least two circumstances. One is the failure of the moderate course adopted by her husband’s Government.

South African blacks show every sign of being willing to wait a few years, and their expectations are realistic. But if the delivery of houses and jobs and schools gets bogged down, if the poor majority begin to feel deceived and disillusioned, they will be increasingly open to Mrs Mandela’s message of racial and economic resentment. The other requirement for the rise of an anti-Mandela would be the absence of a Mandela, the only figure whose authority is beyond question.But he is 76 years old to her 60, and although Mrs Mandela recently found out she had diabetes while Mr. Mandela responds to queries about his health by boasting that he would “like to challenge Mike Tyson,” the actuarial odds are long in her favor. Of the two men with the best chance to lead South Africa in the future, it is not clear either would be a match for Mrs MandelaThabo Mbeki, the currtent favorite to succeed Mr Mandela is more inclined- to compromise with her. He cultivated her support, and that of others in the populist camp, in his campaign to become deputy president, and has argued for going easy on her.

In an Mbeki Government, her influence would probably increase.Cyril Ramaphosa, secretary general of the ANC and a longer shot to become President, is a strong internal critic of Mrs Mandela but is dismissive of her potential. “Yes, our people want to identify themselves with people like Winnie Mandela who have suffered but have also triumphed, who are seen as fighters,” he allowed in an interview.But as for representing a potent alternative force, he said: “No, no, she doesn’t Clearly not. There is a temptation in the ANC for people to want to be populist. But the traditions that have evolved in the ANC keep most people walking along the straight and narrow path of party policy.”Perhaps.

But another ANC insider, who has been a union leader, party fund-raiser and journalist, warns that victorious movements can break down when their unifying cause is accomplished and more primal instincts arise. just as Governments in northern Africa under estimated the potential of Islamic fundamentalism, he contends, leaders in the ANC may under estimate the potential of an Africanist, anti-Western challenge. “Winnie touches something that is not unfamiliar to me,” he admitted “She is a demagogue, yes, but she is a very good demagogue.”In the meantime, Mrs Mandela however much she terrifies whites and rattles her own party, plays an indispensable role, by reminding the Governnent of the obligations it has yet to meet In power, she would probably be a disaster for South Africa. At the edge of power, she keeps the leaders honest, and convinces the downtrodden that their case is being put.”Some of you may well ask,” she told the poor in one shack-dwellers’ ghetto recently, while campaigning to register ANC voters for local elections in November, “why should we continue supporting you when so little has changed? When inequalities remain? When there is no reduction in the shackland population? When unemployment has barely abated? When those without houses remain without houses? When those who had no electricity and water yesterday continue to have no electricity and water today? These people may ask, why vote again when voting does not get you what you hoped it would get you?”These are uncomfortable questions, but merely asking them is not an act of insurrection.

It is an act of accountability.”The Government can become so elitist, and concentrate on elitist interests,” Mrs Mandela said. “To help the Government, you must constantly hold its attention.”. You don’t necessarily win games by playing well Good play all too often leads to draws. You win games by setting your opponents problems, even if that means venturing beyond the confines of strict correctness. One player who has always appreciated the value of slightly dubious play is Tony Miles. It was he, after all, who beat Anatoly Karpov after meeting the world champion’s 1.e4 with 1…a6?!
After becoming Britain’s first grandmaster in 1976, Miles beat several of the world’s top players by ruffling their dignity with such moves.